Hollywood’s “best-case scenario” is a massive drop in box office revenue due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
With so many film pushbacks from all the major studios, the North American box office is expected to struggle to hit $7 billion for 2020, marking the lowest figure in over 20 years. In fact, it could see a 40-percent drop from 2019’s $11.4 billion.
“The studios have looked at the situation and realized they cannot fit everything into the end of this year,” Gower Street Analytics’ Robert Mitchell said. “They’ve had to accept that this year is going to take a big hit.”
For the film industry, the best-case scenario would be a two-month closure, where the revenue would range between $6.82-7.09 billion, depending on how quickly consumers return, according to Gower Street Analytics. However, another scenario estimates the low end could be closer to $6.36 billion.
“I think people will want to go the movies once this over, but it will be a process for people to build their confidence,” Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore commented. “I think it will behoove every public-facing business to roll out slowly. The last thing anybody wants is quick ramp-up and then have another set of closures.”
“There’s no template for this. It’s like trying to work a Rubix’s cube,” Paramount Domestic Distribution Chief Chris Aronson stated. “And frankly, I believe the release calendar will continue to be in flux. At the same time, entertainment outside of the home will be more important than ever.”
With the coronavirus pandemic shutting down theaters across the globe, Hollywood's best-case scenario is still a massive box office drop.